It's Official

The Flyers will tonight spend their first night out of fourth place since January. While the Hurricanes and Penguins have been on fire, the Flyers (and Devils) have been terrible. And now it officially shows up on the standings.

Hope this is the wakeup call the boys need. Because Florida is catching up too...

The First Round Opponent

The Flyers, as has been clear for weeks now, are going to be the #4 seed in the Eastern Conference come playoff time. What has been decidedly less clear is who will be their opponent in Games 1 and 2 at the Wachovia Center. It looked like it would be Montreal for a while, or maybe Florida, but both have hit the skids hard recently, falling to eighth and ninth respectively.

Bold Prediction: The Flyers will face a Staal brother in the first round.

Barring an unlikely huge surge by either of those two, the Flyers' first round opponent will be either Pittsburgh, Carolina, or the Rangers, who have 86, 85, and 84 points respectively as they sit in fifth, sixth, and seventh.

Here's how the remaining schedules look for the three:

Pittsburgh has the toughest next three, against two division leaders and the Rangers, whereas the Rangers and Hurricanes both have two against teams pretty much out of the playoff race, followed by. Don't be surprised to see Pittsburgh fall out of fifth this week, though they should be able to make it up in their remaining five games, which are all against weaker teams. Pittsburgh should finish in fifth, but they're as streaky a team as any, so here's hoping they don't.

Carolina, everyone should agree, is the least scary of the three, and therefore the most desireable first round opponent. They play five of their games at home, which hopefully should cancel out the two at New Jersey which they shouldn't have a shot in. Hopefully Brodeur is resting for the last one.

Lastly, the Rangers, who are a mess. Sean Avery & Co. are the only of the three who the Flyers will face in the regular season. They meet in the final two games of the season, at which point the picture will be much clearer. The Flyers may have the chance to tank to get the Rangers in the first round, or the Rangers the chance to tank to avoid the Flyers. Both could tank, which would be a mess. Playing a home and home to end a season is pretty unusual, and could potentially lead to the two teams playing nine straight games against each other, which I have to think is pretty unprecedented. It should stay unprecedented, though, as I don't see the Rangers passing both Pittsburgh and Carolina, especially as their meeting with each team is away from Manhattan.

It will probably be another Battle of Pennsylvania, but there is still a chance it won't be. Let the Capitals have Pittsburgh, I say. They deserve each other.

The Standings, 3/9/09

With only 18 games left in the season, this day off seems like a super duper time to take a look around the east and see what's likely to be on the menu come April. I've even been kind enough to show off my crazy MS Paint skills as well, circling everything you should care about. There's really only five things.

1. From the Flyers perspective, the biggest number is that 64 games played. It's two or three games fewer than each of the seven teams below the Flyers have played, which makes for a pretty nice cushion. It's pretty clear that the Flyers are coming in fourth. Not much chance of getting any higher, and not too much chance of falling.
2. As much fun as it was to see the Penguins floundering around in 10th a month or so ago, it's equally as unfun to see them with a good shot to make the playoffs. Especially with them winning six in a row, and having only one regulation loss under whoever that guy is that replaced Therrien.
3. This means that the Penguins could easily make it all the way up to #5 and see the Flyers in the first round. And I don't think anybody wants that. The whole 5th-9th race (Buffalo isn't looking great at 10th) is crazy close, including a three way tie at 6th-8th. Flyers could easily face any of Montreal, Florida, the Rangers, Pittsburgh or Carolina in the first round. Let's hope it's Carolina or the Rangers.
4. If Carolina and Florida both join Washington in the playoffs, it would be the first time that three Southeast Division teams would have made it in the same year. That's exactly what the league needs, playoff games with thousands of empty seats...
5. There's a not terrible chance that things could break really well for the Flyers in the first round. With the top three all struggling this weekend, and the Capitals and Bruins struggling for some time now, it's entirely possible that the top three seeds could all go down in the first round, leaving the Flyers with home ice advantage until the finals. That's exactly what allowed Washington to make the finals in 1998, when they really had no business getting past the second round. I'd have absolutely no problem with the Flyers winning a Stanley Cup they probably didn't deserve. Give me the Rangers, Hurricanes, Canadiens, and Predators on the road to Stanley Cup III anytime.

A Little Room to Breathe

Not a ton of breathing room, but some. This Flyers win last night was enhanced by losses from New Jersey and Pittsburgh (both to crappy teams in Atlanta and Nashville, respectively), as well as a Rangers loss last night. The New Jersey loss was especially key, as it takes away the ability they'd had for a long time to catch up based solely on games in hand.

In the conference, the Flyers are still in third, behind second place Washington by four points, and first place Boston by an obscene eleven points.

If the playoffs started today, it would be #3 Flyers vs #6 Devils. And you should remember what happened the last time we saw that scenario...



Raise your hand if you'd like to see that again come April.

In Case You Haven't Heard...

First place, baby.

I'm going to the Rangers-Capitals game tonight, and guess I have to pull for the Caps. Better to shore up first in the division and a top three spot than to worry too much about seeding home ice in the second round, I guess. My main concern is that it doesn't go into overtime. Do not need three points getting spread around.