ECQF Game 5: Flyers 3 @ Penguins 0 - Penguins Lead Series 3-2

3

@

0

That's more like it.

• It was an odd, unfamiliar feeling having bounces go the Flyers' way.
  
• As those of you who read The FF frequently should know, I have ALWAYS been an ardent defender of Daniel Carcillo, who has proved me right by being one of the Flyers' best these past two games. He got assists on the first two goals to finish a game best +2. Added to his goal in Game 4, he's picked it up nicely after that suspension.
• One person I actually have been advocating for is Arron Asham, who again showed off some offensive chops with a laser of a shot to open the scoring, a goal that stood up to be the game winner.
• That first goal held up because Martin Biron did what he needed to do. He didn't really even look his best, but nothing got past him (except Evgeni Malkin's kick-in). Tough to complain too much about a shut out.
  
• Every Flyer forward except for two have scored. Those two? Joffrey Lupul and Danny Briere. Not to say their not earning they're pay (they aren't), I'm just thinking a little pride should kick in when Jared Ross is out-tallying you...
• I realize he scored tonight, but Mike Knuble hasn't been much better than his two aforementioned goalless teammates. Hopefully that late goal gets him back on track.
• I guess it makes sense to keep trying, so good on 'em, but anyone else think it was a little odd that Bylsma pulled Marc-Andre Fleury with just over a minute left, down by three? Can't say I've seen that before.
• The Pittsburgh fans were quiet the whole game, and deserted their team halfway through the third. The Igloo didn't look more than half full with five minutes left, which is pretty disgraceful for a playoff game, no matter the score.

The action now shifts back to The Wach for Game 6, on Saturday at 3 PM on NBC and CBC. The Penguins haven't outplayed the Flyers since Game 1. That was more than a week ago.

Good things can and will happen.

Let's go Flyers.

ECQF Game 4 Review: Penguins 3 @ Flyers 1 - Penguins Lead Series 3-1

Oh well.

• I've been saying Marc-Andre Fleury was the key to this thing the whole time, and Game 4 certainly proved this. Flyers dominated this game and had nothing to show for it.
• What really killed the Flyers was not getting a goal real early. The Flyers came out blazing in the first ten minutes, while the Pens and even Fleury looked a little flat out of the gate. Getting an early goal woulda been huge, but Pittsburgh weathered the storm, got a super crappy goal from Sidney Crosby putting himself in the net before the puck, and they never looked back.
• With Daniel Carcillo of all people scoring (finally), the stage really was set for a huge goal in those waning minutes of the third. The Flyers played their worst hockey of the game inconveniently after Biron got pulled, which made for a pretty anti-climactic end to what could have been a pretty epic comeback.
  

This is what it must have been like for Montreal fans last year, watching your team dominate games and doubling up the other team's shot count, hitting post after post, not being able to score any damn goals while the opponent takes advantage of seemingly every opportunity they get. It's not fun.

There's no doubt in my mind that the Flyers "deserve" a lot better than to be down 3-1 at this point. One of those post shots goes in from Game 4, Carter buries that empty net in Game 2, and it's a whole different series.

Which is why I'm fairly sure the series is over, but Game 5 certainly isn't. The Flyers have not been outplayed at all since Game 1, and seem to know it. They get some bounces to finally go their way, and this thing could very easily be headed back to Philadelphia for a Game 6.

Let's Go Flyers.

Fourth Time's the Charm

Whether or not they win the series, the Flyers have had phenomenal success in Game 4s over the past five seasons. The Flyers have won eight of their past nine Game 4s, including their past five in a row. That's crazy good.

Some highlights (the ones I could find):

2004 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Game 4 vs. New Jersey



2004 Eastern Conference Finals Game 4 vs. Tampa Bay



2006 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Game 4 vs. Buffalo



2008 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Game 4 vs. Washington



2008 Eastern Conference Semifinals Game 4 vs. Montreal



2008 Eastern Conference Finals Game 4 vs. Pittsburgh



Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has lost their last three Game 4s. Unimpressive.

Recap: Flyers are good, Penguins are bad.

Do it to it, boys.

ECQF Game 3: Penguins 3 @ Flyers 6 - Penguins Lead Series 2-1

3

@

6

And we have a series.

• All that orange is a beautiful thing. From the T-shirts (which the Penguins were too cheap to give out this year) to the Kate Smith, it's easily the best playoff atmosphere in any sport. And I say that as a completely impartial observer.
  
• It definitely got pretty scary there in the early second, with the Penguins erasing a two-goal cushion in like twenty-five seconds of playing time. Sure the Flyers had the lead for 53 minutes of this game and never trailed, but those seven minutes weren't fun. The Frenchies got together and decided that not having the lead was no good, and decided that they (Martin Biron, Claude Giroux, Simon Gagne, and Daniel Briere) should start playing really well. And it was a beautiful thing to see.
  
• Claude Giroux is such a great human being. Not only did he get a real pretty goal, a prettier assist, and the prettiest fight (that he only got roughing for), he also has managed to grow a playoff beard that is almost as orange as his jersey. It's a great look.
• The main thing to take home from tonight's game is that I really know what I'm talking about. I've been saying all series long that the key is whether or not Marc-Andre Fleury plays well, and tonight was another shining example of that. Fleury stunk up the joint wire to wire, with a save percentage around 82%. And the Flyers won. Game 4 will largely balance on how he bounces back.
• As much as dumping on Daniel Carcillo is the pasttime here, I gotta say he had a pretty decent game today. He was one of only four Flyer forwards who didn't spend any time in the box, and didn't do anything too boneheaded. I still think Luca Sbisa contributes more, but it worked out alright today.
• The only thing I noticed Sidney Crosby do all game was get face washed by Darroll Powe, who by the way is having one hell of a series.
• Congrats to Jared Ross on choosing a pretty good occasion to score his first NHL goal.

Tuesday is now the hugest night of everyone's life. Git 'er tied, boys.

ECQF Game 2: Flyers @ Penguins 4/17/09 (Penguins Lead 1-0)

The biggest game of the year. If the Flyers lose, as far as I'm concerned, all hope is lost. Insert your own favorite cliche here. Tonight is cliche city.

Why the Flyers Will Win:

• Because they have to. The Flyers are going to be desperate, and hopefully were embarrassed by their play in Game 1. There's a lot to prove. They will be better if they have any pride.
• The Flyers played their best near the end of the game. Maybe some good momentum got started? Maybe?
  
• How can Pittsburgh not underestimate these Flyers? Every talking head is saying that the series is over, how the Flyers are a terrible team, etc. The Flyers could very well catch them sleeping.
  
• Daniel Carcillo is not a playoff calibre player, and the Flyers will be better off without him. Hopefully Luca Sbisa can provide some sort of spark.
  

Why the Penguins Will Win:

• If Game 2 looks anything like Game 1, the Penguins will win. The Flyers were far from being in the contest at any point, so a lot has to change fast.
• The main problem the Flyers have had against the Penguins dating back to last year's playoffs is a complete inability to solve Marc-Andre Fleury. Second to the penalties, it was the main reason the Flyers lost Game 1. Keeping shots high and sending somebody to run him over repeatedly (I nominate Hartnell) could do a lot of good. But if nothing changes, it will be trouble.
• Normally I would say that the big advantage in penalties against that the Penguins held in Game 1 would mean some balancing out in Game 2. But the Carcillo suspension will just reinforce notions of the Flyers being goons. Expect whistles early and often.
  

If anybody is thinking along these lines, yes the Flyers did lose both Games 1 and 2 in Buffalo in 2006 and come back to tie the series by winning both Games 3 and 4 in Philadelphia. So it can be done. But both those Flyers wins were flukes, and the Flyers deservedly got destroyed in Games 5 and 6.

Prediction: Penguins win 3-0. I pray I'm wrong.

Puck drops at 7 on CSN Philadelphia, Versus, and CBC.

Let's go Flyers (clap clap clapclap clap).

My Name is Luca, I Play in the Second Game

An angel descending from the north (see the halo?), Luca Sbisa makes his triumphant return to Flyerland in what is only the biggest game of the season. Welcome back, little Swiss guy.

Daniel Carcillo finally got the Flyers on the suspension board this season, after being held suspensionless for an uncharacteristic 83 games. He'll have to watch from the press box, where scared reporters will try not to make eye contact with him for fear of him biting off their faces.

So what does Sbisa's return mean? Sbisa and Carcillo combined for zero goals this season, true, but Sbisa has the excuse of playing on defense most all of his time with the Flyers, whereas Carcillo's only excuse is that he's terrible.

Sbisa will be on offense tonight, which was always fun to watch. He is crazy fast and plays like he's crazy small (even though he's allegedly 6'2''), bouncing around wildly like a ping-pong ball. Whether he's good or not is not really important--he'll be a different look for the Penguins to deal with, and has to be a pain to play against. Facing Luca Sbisa on offense has to be like playing poker against someone who has no idea what the rules are. They have no idea what they're doing, but neither do you, so it's dangerous for both.

So please, Luca, do big things tonight. The bar is set dangerously low, just be careful not to trip over it.

On This Day Last Year...

...The Flyers took their first lead of the playoffs, winning Game 3 against the Capitals 6-3 to go up two games to one in the first round.

One year later, the Flyers go into Pittsburgh looking to take their first lead of the playoffs tonight.

If that doesn't get you excited for this game, you don't have a pulse.

Go Flyers.

Stale Hate

One of the many frustrating things about playing Pittsburgh in the first round is that it deprives Flyers fans of the opportunity to get to hate someone new. Last year saw the Flyers face both the Capitals and Canadiens for the first time since the 1980s. Part of the reason I was looking forward to playing the Hurricanes was because it would mean playing a new team, getting acquainted with and falling in hate with a whole new group of people, a whole new fanbase.

Instead, we get to play the Penguins. Our big rival. The team who broke our hearts last year.

Yawn.

Playing the Penguins, as someone else put it somewhere (how's that for citation), is like dessert before the icing. Every Pittsburgh game is such an treat. But it's a treat we've had a lot before. Playing the Penguins in the first round is like eating the first eleven chocolate eclair ice cream bars in the box in one sitting (which is awesome because they're delicious), and then having eating the twelfth one because Gary Bettman is forcing you to. You enjoyed the first eleven, but you're pretty damn full, and you know that this last Pittsburgh-colored chocolate eclair ice cream bar would taste a lot better if you could just wait a while. I wish there was time before eating this last eclair bar to get the previous eleven out of your systems in what would certainly be an epic trip to the bathroom. I'm guessing that's how a lot of the Flyers (and maybe the Penguins) are feeling right now, especially the always constipated Andrew Alberts and Hal Gill.

And that's a big part of the reason I haven't had a lot to say about this series. I've got epic brain freeze, I'm full, and a little nauseous at the thought of having to cram more of this crap down my throat.

I'll recover by 7:01 pm Wednesday, I'm sure, but in the mean time I'm gonna need some Tums. Or maybe Alyonka Larionov can teach me how to be bulimic.

The Times

Wednesday, April 15		at Pittsburgh, 7:00 p.m.	VERSUS, CBC, RDS
Friday, April 17		at Pittsburgh, 7:00 p.m.	VERSUS, CBC, RDS
Sunday, April 19		at Philadelphia, 3:00 p.m.	NBC, CBC, RDS
Tuesday, April 21		at Philadelphia, 7:00 p.m.	VERSUS, CBC, RDS
*Thursday, April 23		at Pittsburgh, 7:00 p.m.	VERSUS, CBC, RDS
*Saturday, April 25		at Philadelphia, 3:00 p.m.	NBC, CBC
*Monday, April 27		at Pittsburgh, TBD	VERSUS, CBC

For those of you keeping score at home, the Flyers will play a maximum of ONE home night game during this series. Ridiculous.

Home Ice Matters. A Lot.

After winning two series as an underdog last season, home ice might not seem that important. But against our first round opponent, the Pittsburgh Penguins, it most certainly does.

Compared the all-time home and road records against the Penguins, and you'll see why.

Home (in Philadelphia) : 89W-24L-8T (78.8 win %)

Away (in Pittsburgh) : 43W-46L-22T (43.3 win %)

That's a HUGE 35.5% difference.

So please, Flyers, get a point against the Blueshirts tonight. It's practically Game 1 of the first round.

It's Pittsburgh

The Pittsburgh Penguins have come all the way back from 10th place in the East to a tie for fourth, and they will face the Flyers in the first round of the 2009 Stanley Cup playoffs in the 4 vs 5 match up, a rematch of last year's Eastern Conference Finals. The Flyers need at least one point against the Rangers on Sunday in order to get home ice for the series against Pittsburgh. The Rangers are locked into seventh, so hopefully they don't come out too motivated.

For my money the Flyers and Penguins are the two playoff-toughest in the East. Shame they have to meet this early.

How Close We've Come

Brace yourselves, dear readers, because this is probably the best work I've ever done. The Flyers may or may not be hitting their peak as the playoffs approach, but I certainly am.

Now that the Flyers are officially in the playoffs, I figured it's high time to look to the past to try to find the algorithms, decipher the codes of past results to figure out exactly how well the Flyers will do in the playoffs this year.

Looking at data of number of playoff games won, playoff series won, and series played each year didn't yield a whole lot of useful results, because the number of rounds and lengths of series in the playoffs has changed a few times since 1968. So I figured the best way to put every year in historical perspective was to look at how close the Flyers came to winning the number of playoff games necessary to win the cup each year as a percentage.

Here's the graph, you should click on it to see it bigger:
And if you're for some reason dying to see the X and Y flipped, here it is sideways:

So what can we glean from this gold mine of information? Several things:

1. Keeping Momentum is not the Flyers' strong point (What Goes Up Must Come Down Hard). Very rarely have the Flyers followed up success with success (which is different from not improving, see #3). There has only been one stretch in the entire forty season history of the team in which the Flyers were able to put together consecutive seasons of getting 50% or more of the way to the Stanley Cup. That stretch, not surprisingly, was from 1974-76, when the Flyers made the finals three straight seasons. The Flyers have gotten at least 50% of the way to the Stanley Cup (semifinals/Conference Finals) an extremely impressive thirteen times in their forty seasons, almost a third of the time. But only during this one 1974-76 stretch did the Flyers ever manage to put any of those thirteen back to back. This, theoretically, bodes poorly for these 2009 playoffs. But no better time to break the streak than the present.
2. "Back With a Vengeance" is more than just an advertising slogan (What Comes Down Goes Back Up Big). When the Flyers go a season or more without winning a playoff game but then recover, they're at their most dangerous. In 1973, the Flyers followed up not making the playoffs in 1972 by winning a playoff series for the first time. In 1985, the Flyers followed up two first round sweeps in 1983 and 1984 by making the Stanley Cup Finals. In 1995, after missing the playoffs for five straight seasons from 1990 to 1994, the Flyers got back on track by making the conference finals. And in 2008, the Flyers recovered from finishing dead last in the league in 2007 by making the conference finals. This is a team that knows how to bounce back.
   
3. Improvement comes often, rarely stays around. Only three times in their history have the Flyers done better from one year to the next in consecutive seasons. The Flyers improved in both '73 and '74, both '99 and '00, and both '03 and '04. The improvement in 1999 is pretty minor, though, as the Flyers only improved in that they lost their first round series in 1998 in five games, but lost their 1999 first round series in six. I don't think anybody really saw that as a step in the right direction. Never have the Flyers improved three years in a row, though 1973-75 saw the improvement end in '75 only because the Flyers could not have possibly improved on their '74 Cup win--they merely repeated it.
   
4. Three Clearly Defined Eras, and now. The years/stretches when the Flyers won zero playoffs games split the history of the team pretty cleanly into three major eras, which can be accurately referred to as the Clarkeian Era, the Poulinian Era, and the LeClairian era, as those three players' stints with the team match up best with the team's runs of consecutive playoff-winning seasons, even if Poulin and LeClair weren't necessarily the faces of the franchise. The pre-Clarke era didn't see much playoff success, and the Richardsian era is too young as of now to really say much about it. I skipped over the lockout season in doing the line, but if it was there there would be a clearer demarcation between the LeClairian and Richardsian eras (with that odd Forsbergian 2006 season in-between).
   
5. Problems with this method are that it doesn't differentiate between missing the playoffs and getting swept in the first round, and that games won don't always reflect series won. The Flyers got swept in the first round four times, in 1969, 1971, 1983, and 1984. Getting swept in the first round is much better than missing the playoffs, but looks the same on the graph as the disastrous, cellar dwelling seasons of the early 1990s and 2006-2007. As for the second problem, it's best illustrated by the fact that the graph shows the Flyers as closer to winning the Cup in 2000 and 2004 when they lost in Game 7 of the conference finals than it does in 1976, when they got swept in the Stanley Cup finals.

So there you have it. History says that the Flyers will not be able to repeat their conference finals run of last season this year, but I choose to ignore that information. This is the dawning of the Richardsian Era, boys and girls, in which the Flyers improve every year and Stanley Cups will rain onto the streets of Philadelphia like satellites crashing down to earth. You might want to wear a helmet.

Make Room in Your Closet...

For an XL orange shirt.

The playoffs make me happy.

Game #79 Preview: Panthers @ Flyers 4/7/09

@

Tonight could be the night. With one point (or a Rangers loss), the Flyers would guarantee a playoff spot for the thirteenth time in fourteen seasons, a conference best. The Penguins and Canadiens can clinch tonight as well with wins.

Clinching is always fun. Here's what it looked like last year:

Why the Flyers Will Win:

• The last home game the Flyers played, they scored five goals in the first period. If they do that again, they'll probably win.
  
• Riley Cote's convenient right before the playoffs injury is keeping him out of this game, which means somebody who knows how to skate will get a jersey instead.
• Martin Biron is getting the start tonight, which is good, because he's the only Flyers goalie who knows how to win these days.
• A loss tonight could put the Flyers as low as SIXTH. That's bad. What's good is that the Flyers play well when the game means something. Which is good because the playoffs fast approach.
  

Why the Panthers Will Win:

• As much as tonight means for the Flyers, it's gotta mean a lot more for the Panthers. The Panthers are tied for eighth with the Panthers but don't own the tiebreak
  
• You may have noticed, in our non-stop efforts to improve here at The FF, we've put up a little meter on the sidebar which keeps track of how many goals Daniel Carcillo has scored for the Flyers. Unfortunately, it has to be updated manually. Fortunately, I doubt I'll ever have to update it. Daniel Carcinogen is coming off his worst game yet as a Flyer, taking 24 minutes worth of penalties against Ottawa on Saturday. He's just bad. Scratch him for the year and be done with it already.

Prediction: Florida wins 3-2 in a shootout. Flyers clinch, Panthers get two points. Everybody's happy.

What Remains

A whole lot can happen. There could be some real interesting late tanking around the 6-7 seeds, which will be the difference between playing New Jersey or Washington. They're both dangerous teams, but totally opposite styles. Every team should have a preference between the two.

One Point Away

In order to miss the playoffs, the following nine events ALL must happen. If any one of these things does not happen, the Flyers will be into the playoffs for the thirteenth time in the last fourteen seasons.

1. The Flyers must lose to the Panthers on Tuesday in regulation.
2. The Flyers must lose to the Rangers on Thursday in regulation.
3. The Flyers must lose to the Islanders on Saturday in regulation.
4. The Flyers must lose to the Rangers on Sunday in regulation.
5. The Rangers must beat the Canadiens on Tuesday.
6. The Panthers must beat the Thrashers on Thursday.
7. The Panthers must beat the Capitals on Saturday.
8. The Canadiens must get at least four points in their remaining four games (or three points if two of those points are from a victory).
9. The Penguins must get two points in their remaining three games.

The last two are pretty much givens, but its fair to say that the other seven are all fifty-fifty or better for the Flyers. Very conservatively assuming the first seven events all have a 50/50 probability of happening, the Flyers still have a better than 98% chance of getting into the playoffs.

The Flyers can still mathematically face eight different teams in the first round. There's a whole lot of hockey left before the second season begins.

The Centralized West / Atlantic Supremacy

All five Central Division teams are currently in playoff position in the West, taking up more than half of the conference's spots. If it holds (which is unlikely because of the remaining schedule), the Central Division would be come the first in the league to get all five teams into the playoffs since the six division system started in 1998-99.

It would be pretty surprising for the Central Division to be the one to , as the Central has been pretty terrible in terms of depth in it's ten year history as a five-team division, averaging only 2.22 teams in the playoffs each season, second worst in the league.

You know what division is the best? The Flyers' own Atlantic Division, naturally. The Atlantic Division is tied with the Northeast Division with an average of 3.22 teams in the playoffs each year, significantly better than the 2.66 that would be the expected average. The Atlantic will have sole possession of the highest average once this season's numbers are added, as the division will almost certainly send four teams, and the Northeast will send a maximum of two. The Atlantic Division is also the only division never to have sent less than three teams, and with the Devils, Flyers, Penguinss and Rangers all in great shape to make the playoffs this season, the Atlantic is likely to become the first division to send four teams to the playoffs in three different years.

Of course, a large part of the success of the Atlantic and Northeast is due to the incomprehensible suck of the Southeast Division. The Southeast is the only division never to have sent three teams to the playoffs, an accomplishment which every other division has achieved at least twice (the Atlantic has done it nine times). The Southeast is also the only division to have ever sent only one team to the playoffs, and they've done it four times. Unbelievable that that craphole of a division has won two of the last four Stanley Cups.

Here's how the number of Stanley Cups by division breaks down:

Atlantic -- 2 (New Jersey 2000, New Jersey 2003)
Northeast -- 0 (None)
Southeast -- 2 (Tampa Bay 2004, Carolina 2008)
Central -- 2 (Detroit 2002, Detroit 2008)
Northwest -- 1 (Colorado 2001)
Pacific -- 2 (Dallas 1999, Anaheim 2007)

And the number of Stanley Cup finals appearances by division:

Atlantic -- 4 (New Jersey 2000, New Jersey 2001, New Jersey 2003, Pittsburgh 2008)
Northeast -- 2 (Buffalo 1999, Ottawa 2007)
Southeast -- 3 (Carolina 2002, Tampa Bay 2004, Carolina 2008)
Central -- 2 (Detroit 2002, Detroit 2008)
Northwest -- 3 (Colorado 2001, Calgary 2004, Edmonton 2006)
Pacific -- 2 (Dallas 1999, Dallas 2001, Anaheim 2003, Anaheim 2007)

For a team that has been getting the most teams into the playoffs, the Northeast has had some pretty crappy results in the playoffs. It's also worth noting that two of the Southeast's appearances in the finals came in years where there was only one Southeast team in the playoffs.

So what does all this mean? No idea.

New Poll / Do Dreams Come True?

The Flyer Frequent is proud to present its second ever poll, up on the sidebar now. Vote for who you most want to see the Flyers take on in the first round, either Pittsburgh, Carolina, or the Rangers.

With a handful votes in so far, the Carolina Hurricanes are the most desired opponent. Which is good, because as of today, they are in fifth place, winning a big game in Florida last night. Pittsburgh is only a point behind with a game in hand, but fifth is fifth.

The Flyers went 3-0-1 against the Hurricanes this season, playing all four games within the span of a couple weeks in late November and early December. Carolina, you'll recall, couldn't even beat the Flyers when they led 5-1 after two periods.

At the risk of getting ahead of myself, I think it's pretty clear that if the Flyers do meet the 'Canes in Round 1, sweep will be the word.

The First Round Opponent

The Flyers, as has been clear for weeks now, are going to be the #4 seed in the Eastern Conference come playoff time. What has been decidedly less clear is who will be their opponent in Games 1 and 2 at the Wachovia Center. It looked like it would be Montreal for a while, or maybe Florida, but both have hit the skids hard recently, falling to eighth and ninth respectively.

Bold Prediction: The Flyers will face a Staal brother in the first round.

Barring an unlikely huge surge by either of those two, the Flyers' first round opponent will be either Pittsburgh, Carolina, or the Rangers, who have 86, 85, and 84 points respectively as they sit in fifth, sixth, and seventh.

Here's how the remaining schedules look for the three:

Pittsburgh has the toughest next three, against two division leaders and the Rangers, whereas the Rangers and Hurricanes both have two against teams pretty much out of the playoff race, followed by. Don't be surprised to see Pittsburgh fall out of fifth this week, though they should be able to make it up in their remaining five games, which are all against weaker teams. Pittsburgh should finish in fifth, but they're as streaky a team as any, so here's hoping they don't.

Carolina, everyone should agree, is the least scary of the three, and therefore the most desireable first round opponent. They play five of their games at home, which hopefully should cancel out the two at New Jersey which they shouldn't have a shot in. Hopefully Brodeur is resting for the last one.

Lastly, the Rangers, who are a mess. Sean Avery & Co. are the only of the three who the Flyers will face in the regular season. They meet in the final two games of the season, at which point the picture will be much clearer. The Flyers may have the chance to tank to get the Rangers in the first round, or the Rangers the chance to tank to avoid the Flyers. Both could tank, which would be a mess. Playing a home and home to end a season is pretty unusual, and could potentially lead to the two teams playing nine straight games against each other, which I have to think is pretty unprecedented. It should stay unprecedented, though, as I don't see the Rangers passing both Pittsburgh and Carolina, especially as their meeting with each team is away from Manhattan.

It will probably be another Battle of Pennsylvania, but there is still a chance it won't be. Let the Capitals have Pittsburgh, I say. They deserve each other.

The Most Fun You'll Have With Excel Today

J.P. at Japers' Rink posted this pretty sweet playoff race predictor spreadsheet thing, where you predict the rest of the results the last few weeks of the season and it tells you how everything winds up in the east. Takes some time, but is worth doing.

Playing it fairly pessimistically, this is what I wound up with.

Not ideal, but #6 Philadelphia vs. #3 Washington went okay last time...