One Point Away

In order to miss the playoffs, the following nine events ALL must happen. If any one of these things does not happen, the Flyers will be into the playoffs for the thirteenth time in the last fourteen seasons.

1. The Flyers must lose to the Panthers on Tuesday in regulation.
2. The Flyers must lose to the Rangers on Thursday in regulation.
3. The Flyers must lose to the Islanders on Saturday in regulation.
4. The Flyers must lose to the Rangers on Sunday in regulation.
5. The Rangers must beat the Canadiens on Tuesday.
6. The Panthers must beat the Thrashers on Thursday.
7. The Panthers must beat the Capitals on Saturday.
8. The Canadiens must get at least four points in their remaining four games (or three points if two of those points are from a victory).
9. The Penguins must get two points in their remaining three games.

The last two are pretty much givens, but its fair to say that the other seven are all fifty-fifty or better for the Flyers. Very conservatively assuming the first seven events all have a 50/50 probability of happening, the Flyers still have a better than 98% chance of getting into the playoffs.

The Flyers can still mathematically face eight different teams in the first round. There's a whole lot of hockey left before the second season begins.